Global Cold Chain Logistics Report: 2026 Strategic Outlook a

As of January 2026, the global cold chain logistics market is undergoing a structural realignment driven by the maturation of biopharmaceutical requirements, the explosion of e-grocery channels, and stringent regulatory shifts regarding sustainability and traceability. The market, valued at approximately USD 382.3 billion to USD 452.8 billion in 2025, is projected to reach between USD 1.37 trillion and USD 1.63 trillion by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 13.8% to 15.5%.

The industry is transitioning from reactive temperature monitoring to predictive, AI-driven autonomous systems. Concurrently, the regulatory landscape has hardened; the enforcement of the AIM Act in the US and similar global standards has effectively banned high-GWP refrigerants in new facilities as of January 1, 2026, forcing a rapid migration to natural refrigerants like ammonia and CO2.

The cold chain logistics sector has demonstrated resilience against broader trade volatility due to the inelastic demand for food and pharmaceuticals.

• Current Valuation: Estimates for the 2025 market size range from USD 382.3 billion to USD 452.8 billion.
• Future Outlook: By 2035, the market is expected to exceed USD 1.6 trillion.
• Key Segments: Refrigerated warehousing currently dominates market share (approx. 58% in 2025), but transportation services are projected to grow faster as supply chains fragment and delivery windows narrow.

• North America: Currently holds the largest market share (approx. 34–38%), driven by advanced infrastructure and high pharmaceutical demand. The US market alone was valued at USD 105.2 billion in 2025.
• Asia-Pacific: The fastest-growing region, projected to capture 52% of the market share by 2035. Growth is fuelled by China’s "14th Five-Year" Modern Logistics Plan and rapid urbanisation in India.
• Latin America: Experiencing strategic shifts due to nearshoring and infrastructure projects like the Bioceanic Corridor. This 2,400 km road and rail network connecting Atlantic and Pacific ports across Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina, and Chile is slated for completion in late 2026, aiming to reduce logistics costs by 18%.

In 2026, technology investment has shifted from broad digital transformation to specific, execution-focused tools.

AI has evolved from a standalone feature to an operational backbone.

• Predictive Operations: AI is now used to forecast temperature excursions before they occur and predict equipment failures days in advance, reducing downtime by over 30%.
• Autonomous Supply Chains: By late 2026, AI systems are expected to make autonomous real-time decisions regarding order prioritisation and transport options with minimal human intervention.
• Warehouse Automation: To combat labour shortages, facilities are increasingly deploying Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs) and Automated Storage & Retrieval Systems (AS/RS).

Real-time visibility is no longer a premium feature but a regulatory and operational necessity.

• Sensors: Modern IoT sensors transmit data every few minutes, monitoring temperature, humidity, shock, and light.
• Digital Twins: "Supply Chain Digital Twins" are emerging in 2026, linking data from ERP and WMS to simulate bottlenecks and calculate alternative routes in real-time.

A critical regulatory milestone occurred on January 1, 2026. Under the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act, high-Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerants (traditional HFCs) are no longer permitted in new commercial or industrial refrigeration systems.

• Impact: Operators must transition to natural refrigerants. Ammonia (R-717) remains the gold standard for large industrial facilities due to high efficiency (GWP 0), while Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is gaining traction for cold climates and retail applications.
• Risk: Data centre and cold storage operators relying on legacy systems face increasing maintenance costs and scarcity of HFCs as production is phased down by 85% by 2036.

• FSMA 204 (USA): The FDA's Food Traceability Rule requires digital traceability records for high-risk foods. While enforcement is phased, systems must be built now to avoid compliance failures.
• Sustainability Reporting: In 2026, sustainability has moved from reporting to execution. Scope 3 emissions tracking is becoming a deciding factor in carrier selection and procurement.

The pharmaceutical segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 14.9% through 2035, outpacing food.

• Drivers: The rise of mRNA vaccines and cell/gene therapies requires cryogenic storage (below -150°C) and ultra-low temperature logistics (-80°C to -60°C).
• Packaging: There is a surge in demand for active packaging systems and reusable thermal containers to ensure "Zero-Fault" logistics for high-value biologics.

• E-Grocery: With online grocery projected to capture over 20% of the US market, retailers are moving toward micro-fulfilment centres in urban cores to meet 15-30 minute delivery promises.
• Frozen Food: The frozen segment (-18°C to -25°C) is the fastest-growing temperature category (CAGR 14.7%), driven by the global trade of ready-to-cook meals and frozen produce.

The market is characterized by consolidation as top players seek end-to-end integration.

• Major Players: Lineage Logistics leads globally with approximately 3 billion cubic feet of capacity, followed by Americold (1.45 billion ft³) and NewCold.
• Strategic Moves:
  • Lineage: Broke ground on a new automated facility in Dallas (Nov 2025) and acquired Coldpoint to expand in Kansas City.
  • Americold: Opened a USD 127 million automated facility in Houston and is expanding rail partnerships.
  • UPS Healthcare: Acquired Frigo-Trans to expand European cold chain capabilities.
  • Maersk: Continuing to invest in integrated cold chain logistics, emphasising visibility software.

1. Invest in Natural Refrigerants: With the AIM Act now in effect for new builds, investing in Ammonia or CO2 systems is essential to avoid obsolescence and regulatory penalties.
2. Adopt Predictive AI: Move beyond simple tracking; utilise AI for predictive maintenance of reefer units to reduce spoilage and towing costs.
3. Diversify Sourcing (Nearshoring): Leverage the emerging capabilities in Latin America and the Bioceanic Corridor to mitigate tariff risks and reduce dependency on single maritime routes like the Panama Canal.
4. Prioritise Flexibility: Infrastructure must be adaptable. Future facilities should handle multi-temperature zones to accommodate the fluctuating mix of chilled, frozen, and deep-frozen inventory required by modern e-commerce.

Delays and extended timelines in cold chain logistics are currently driven by a convergence of geopolitical instability, infrastructure deficits, and labor shortages.

Geopolitical and Trade Route Disruptions Global shipping routes are facing severe interruptions that disrupt schedules and force longer transit times.

• Conflict and Rerouting: The ongoing war in Ukraine has closed regional airspace, forcing carriers to reroute, while tensions in the Middle East and diversions from the Red Sea and Suez Canal have reduced space capacity and worsened global port congestion.
• Canal Restrictions: Operational restrictions at the Panama Canal have further complicated global trade flows, prompting a redistribution of routes.
• Port Consolidation: New ocean carrier alliances, such as the Gemini Cooperation, are reducing port callings to shorten specific transit times, potentially excluding smaller ports and altering how freight flows inland.

Infrastructure and Labor Constraints

• Driver Shortages: In the United States, an acute shortage of over 80,000 CDL-certified reefer drivers is constraining transport capacity and straining service reliability.
• Port Congestion: North American supply chains continue to face pressure from port congestion, affecting end-to-end reliability.
• Emerging Market Gaps: In many emerging markets, logistical challenges are exacerbated by poor road systems, unstable power grids, and a lack of standardized refrigerated storage facilities.

Operational Inefficiencies

• Handoffs and Failures: A significant portion of cold chain failures, including transit delays, occurs due to handoff gaps between supply chain partners and equipment malfunctions.
• Regulatory Friction: Stricter regulations, such as the US FSMA 204 and the EU's Import Control System 2 (ICS2), now require extensive electronic traceability and data pre-notification; manual controls and isolated systems that fail to meet these digital requirements can no longer sustain efficient operations.